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Giovanni RICCO (Warwick University) “Monitoring Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices”

February 15 @ 12:15 pm - 1:30 pm

The Macroeconomics Seminar:
Time: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm
Date: 15 th of February 2022

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Giovanni RICCO (Warwick University) “Monitoring Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices”

Abstract : A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real-time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via minimal theory-based restrictions. We find that the CBO model implies a smoother trend output but the second model better captures the business cycle dynamics of nominal and real variables. The methodology offers both a framework for evaluating official estimates of unobserved quantities of economic interest and for tracking them in real-time.

Organizers:
 Grégory CORCOS (CREST)

Sponsors:
CREST