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DTSTART:20220327T010000
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DTSTART:20221030T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20220215T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20220215T133000
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SUMMARY:Giovanni RICCO (Warwick University) "Monitoring Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices"
DESCRIPTION:The Macroeconomics Seminar:\nTime: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 15 th of February 2022 \n Zoom \nGiovanni RICCO (Warwick University) “Monitoring Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices” \nAbstract : A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap\, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real-time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure\, in the other is unobserved and derived via minimal theory-based restrictions. We find that the CBO model implies a smoother trend output but the second model better captures the business cycle dynamics of nominal and real variables. The methodology offers both a framework for evaluating official estimates of unobserved quantities of economic interest and for tracking them in real-time. \nOrganizers:\n Grégory CORCOS (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/giovanni-ricco-warwick-university-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics
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