Salle 3001

Stephen HANSEN (University College London) “Policymakers’ Uncertainty”

Abstract: We examine how uncertainty impacts decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Drawing from private deliberations, we quantify the uncertainty types the FOMC perceives and their policy impact. Inflation uncertainty prompts a tighter stance, unexplained by macroeconomic forecasts or public uncertainty indicators, particularly when expected inflation nears or exceeds the target. The FOMC’s focus on upper-tail inflation risks explains this response,
diverging from common models of policymaking under uncertainty. Narrative evidence connects tail-risk perceptions to credibility concerns. We thus highlight how the Fed’s risk management contributed to price stability in pre-pandemic decades, with implications for future monetary policy frameworks. 

Organizer :  Alessandro RIBONI