Salle 3001

Nicolas COEURDACIER (Sciences Po) “Land Use and Climate Change: Evidence from France (1950-2020)”

Abstract: Land use and the distribution of economic activity are key determinants of a territory’s emissions of greenhouse gases. Whether land is artificialized, used for agriculture, or covered with forests dramatically impacts the resulting emissions. The organization of cities, such as the density and size of housing or the commuting distance to work have a comparable impact. We develop a quantitative spatial theory of land use where different sectors, agriculture, forestry and housing, compete for land. Technological and demographic evolutions trigger structural change and shape land use, commuting and housing choices together with the resulting emissions across the entire territory. For instance, a more productive agriculture frees up land that can be converted to cities, potentially increasing sprawl, but this land can also be regained by forests. Using French spatial data since 1950 across sectors, the estimation of the quantitative model delivers novel insights on the determinants of land use and emissions across space and time and allows to evaluate the effect of various land use policies on welfare, productivity and the environment. 

Joint work : Cécile Gaubert (UC Berkeley) and Emeric Henry (Sciences Po)

Organizer : Suzanne BELLUE