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CANCELLED – Mathias THOENIG (Université de Lausanne) “The Gravity of Violence”

May 15 @ 12:15 pm - 1:30 pm

The Macro Seminar:
Time: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm
Date: 15th of May 2023

Room 3001

Mathias THOENIG (Université de Lausanne) “The Gravity of Violence”

Abstract : This paper presents a generic approach for estimating and simulating a quantitative model of trade and violence. In this new theoretical and empirical framework, suited for disciplining sub-national and international data, we first model the general equilibrium interactions between the economic and
fighting margins in a micro-founded setup. We then show how the structural parameters can be recovered from the data in a simple and transparent way: A central element of the procedure consists in estimating a theory-consistent gravity equation of violence. Looking at sub-Saharan Africa over the period
1997 to 2022, we test the key predictions of the model and uncover new facts related to spatial frictions and conflicts. Finally, the model is used to quantify counterfactual policy interventions that aim at promoting development in weakly institutionalized contexts where insecurity is pervasive.


Alessandro RIBONI (CREST)