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Celine ZIPFEL (Stockholm School of Economics) – “The Demand Side of Africa’s Democratic Transition : Desired Fertility, Wealth and Jobs
Applied Micro Seminar : Every Tuesday
Time: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm
Date: 22 th of November 2022
Room : 3001
Celine ZIPFEL (Stockholm School of Economics) – “The Demand Side of Africa’s Democratic Transition : Desired Fertility, Wealth and Jobs”
Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) accounts for around 40% of global births projected over the rest of this century. To investigate the roots of persistently high fertility rates across the region, I assemble micro data from 182 Demographic and Health Surveys covering 66 developing countries, and document three key facts. First, women’s fertility ideals and intentions are, on average, substantially higher in SSA than other low- and middle-income regions. Second, this gap is particularly large among poorer households: the socioeconomic gradient in desired fertility is twice as steep (more negative) on the sub-continent. Third, exploiting within-SSA variation across 25 countries, I find that increases in female salaried employment opportunities at the sub-national level are associated with a flattening of this gradient over time, conditional on a rich set of covariates. These findings constitute suggestive evidence that the nature of SSA’s occupational change process may be an important contributor to the region’s distinct fertility transition.
Benoît SCHMUTZ (Pôle d’économie du CREST)
Roland RATHELOT (Pôle d’économie du CREST)