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Comprendre comment les ménages réagissent à la perte d’un emploi : un éclairage à partir des travaux de Lionel Wilner

Lionel Wilner, chercheur au CREST et enseignant à l’ENSAE Paris, s’est intéressé aux épisodes de chômage dans une récente étude INSEE co-écrite avec Odran Bonnet (INSEE), François Le Grand (Rennes School of Business), Tom Olivia (INSEE) et Xavier Ragot (Sciences Po, CNRS, OFCE) intitulée The Consumption Response to Unemployment: Evidence from French Bank Account Data. Ce document de travail explore comment les ménages réagissent à la perte d’un emploi, sur le plan financier, en analysant des données bancaires portant sur plus de 6 500 foyers percevant des indemnités chômage.

Une méthodologie novatrice

Image-Wilner

Cette recherche, qui s’appuie sur des données à haute fréquence issues de comptes bancaires, examine comment les ménages ajustent leurs dépenses et utilisent leur épargne pour faire face à un choc de chômage. Les résultats montrent que sur les six premiers mois suivant une perte d’emploi, 36 % de la baisse de revenu est compensée par une réduction des dépenses, tandis que le reste est principalement comblé par la mobilisation de l’épargne liquide.

Retombée dans la presse et perspectives pour les politiques publiques

Ces travaux apportent un éclairage sur les marges d’adaptation des ménages et ont des implications sur la conception d’une assurance chômage optimale. L’étude a récemment été mise en lumière par Les Échos (édition du 9 janvier 2025), qui souligne son importance pour comprendre les arbitrages des ménages face à une perte de revenu.  En quantifiant la propension marginale à consommer en période de chômage (0,36) et ses variations selon la liquidité des ménages notamment, cette étude contribue aux débats sur des réformes possibles de l’assurance chômage.

2024 CREST Highlights

As 2024 draws to a close, CREST reflects on a year filled with groundbreaking research, prestigious awards, and impactful initiatives. Here’s a look back at our key achievements.

đź“Š Research Breakthroughs: 93 Articles Published

CREST published 93 articles so far, with 62% appearing in Q1 journals. These works reflect the breadth and depth of research conducted across CREST’s clusters. Here are some highlights:

Economics

Information Technology and Returns to Scale by Danial Lashkari, Arthur Bauer, and Jocely Boussard explores how technological advancements influence economies of scale, shedding light on contemporary production practices, in American Economic Review

Locus of Control and the Preference for Agency by Marco Caliendo, Deborah Cobb-Clark, Juliana Silva-Goncalves, and Arne Uhlendorff investigates how personal traits shape individuals’ economic decisions, providing a deeper understanding of agency in economic behavior, in European Economic Review.

Global Mobile Inventors by Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury, Ernest Miguelez, and Sara Signorelli examines the migration patterns of innovative talent worldwide, offering new perspectives on innovation dynamics, in Journal of Development Economics.

Testing and Relaxing the Exclusion Restriction in the Control Function Approach by Xavier D’Haultfoeuille, Stefan Hordelein, and Yuya Sasaki provides advanced methodologies to enhance econometric analysis, in Journal of Econometrics.

Are Economists’ Preferences Psychologists’ Personality Traits? A Structural Approach by Tomas Jagelka bridges economics and psychology, exploring how personality traits influence economic preferences, in Journal of Political Economy.

Finance-Insurance

Autoregressive Conditional Betas by Francisco Blasques, Christian Francq, and SĂ©bastien Laurent provides innovative methods to measure financial risk, critical for investment strategies, in Journal of Econometrics.

Model-based vs. Agnostic Methods for the Prediction of Time-Varying Covariance Matrices by Jean-David Fermanian, Benjamin Poignard, and Panos Xidonas compares methodologies for improving financial predictions under uncertainty, in Annals of Operations Research.

Corporate Debt Value Under Transition Scenario Uncertainty by Theo Le Guedenal and Peter Tankov addresses the valuation of corporate debt amid environmental and regulatory changes, in Mathematical Finance.

Semiparametric Copula Models Applied to the Decomposition of Claim Amounts by SĂ©bastien Farkas and Olivier Lopez develops new actuarial techniques to better understand insurance claims, in Scandinavian Actuarial Journal.

On the Chaotic Expansion for Counting Processes by Caroline Hillairet and Anthony RĂ©veillac advances mathematical models with applications in finance and beyond, in Electronic Journal of Probability.

Sociology

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and Perceived Intergenerational Mobility in Europe by Alexi Gugushvili and Patrick Präg examines how geopolitical shocks affect societal perceptions and mobility, in British Journal of Sociology.

The Total Effect of Social Origins on Educational Attainment: Meta-analysis of Sibling Correlations From 18 Countries by Lewis R. Anderson, Patrick Präg, Evelina T. Akimova, and Christiaan Monden provides a meta-analysis of sibling correlations, offering fresh insights into education and inequality, in Demography.

Context Matters When Evacuating Large Cities: Shifting the Focus from Individual Characteristics to Location and Social Vulnerability by Samuel Rufat, Emeline Comby, Serge Lhomme, and Victor Santoni shifts the focus from individual characteristics to social vulnerabilities during urban evacuations, in Environmental Science and Policy.

Gender Equality for Whom? The Changing College Education Gradients of the Division of Paid Work and Housework Among US Couples, 1968-2019 by LĂ©a Pessin explores shifting dynamics in gendered divisions of labor among U.S. couples over the decades, in Social Forces.

The Augmented Social Scientist: Using Sequential Transfer Learning to Annotate Millions of Texts with Human-Level Accuracy by Salomé Do, Etienne Ollion, and Rubing Shen highlights how AI tools can assist in large-scale sociological research with human-level accuracy, in Sociological Methods and Research.

Statistics

Investigating Swimming Technical Skills by a Double Partition Clustering of Multivariate Functional Data Allowing for Dimension Selection, by Antoine Bouvet, Salima El Kolei, Matthieu Marbac, in Annals of Applied Statistics.

Full-model estimation for non-parametric multivariate finite mixture models, by Marie Du Roy de Chaumaray, Matthieu Marbac, in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B: Statistical Methodology

Tail Inverse Regression: Dimension Reduction for Prediction of Extremes, by Anass Aghbalou, François Portier, Anne Sabourin, Chen Zhou, in Bernoulli.

Proxy-analysis of the genetics of cognitive decline in Parkinson’s disease through polygenic scores, by Johann Faouzi, Manuela Tan, Fanny Casse, Suzanne Lesage, Christelle Tesson, Alexis Brice, Graziella Mangone, Louise-Laure Mariani, Hirotaka Iwaki, Olivier Colliot, Lasse Pihlstrom, Jean-Christophe Corvol, in NPJ Parkinson’s Disease.

Benign Overfitting and Adaptive Nonparametric Regression, by Julien Chhor, Suzanne Sigalla, Alexandre Tsybakov, in Probability Theory and Related Fields.

🎯 Discover more CREST publications on our HAL webpage.

🌍 Impactful Events and Conferences

CREST actively participated in and hosted events that fostered collaboration and knowledge exchange:

đź“… Join future events: Visit our calendar.

2024 brought two new chairs at CREST:

  • Cyclomob by Marion Leroutier highlights research into sustainable urban mobility, funded through a regional chair.
  • Impact Investing Chair by Olivier-David Zerbib to maximize the positive impact of the investment on the environment and society.

🏆 Awards and Recognitions

2024 was a year of accolades for CREST:

In 2024, some CREST researchers were also appointed in diverse institutions:

đź“š Books and Projects

This year, CREST researchers authored several impactful books:

2024 was also marked by the second series of the Beyond  the PhD series, a series of videos dedicated to the PhD course. In 2024, we were able to explore the evolution of the PhD definition through students currently in different years of their studies in all CREST research clusters.

đź“Ł Media and Outreach

CREST researchers were featured in:

  • 80+ media outlets, including Le Monde, Le Nouvel Obs, Les Échos, University World News, BBC News Brazil, France Culture, LibĂ©ration, Le Cercles des Économistes, MĂ©diapart, AOC…
  • 30+ op-eds and articles, shaping public discourse.

🎙️ Featured Interview: Pauline Rossi discusses economic inequalities in Le Cercle des Économistes. Listen here.

CREST celebrates a year of remarkable achievements and meaningful contributions to research, society, and global conversations. From groundbreaking publications to prestigious awards and impactful events, our community has continued to push boundaries and inspire innovation.

Looking ahead to 2025, we remain committed to fostering interdisciplinary research, addressing societal challenges, and nurturing a collaborative environment for researchers and students.

CrĂ©ation d’un MOOC sur la finance durable avec Olivier-David Zerbib

Pour la première fois, l’Institut Louis Bachelier, l’Institut de la Finance Durable et le fond de dotation Horizon & Beyond s’associent dans la création d’un MOOC sur la finance durable.

Le MOOC de la finance durable répond à plusieurs problématiques actuelles, telles que les enjeux de financement de la transition en passant par les débats autour du Green Deal lors des récentes élections européennes. Il a pour vocation de couvrir l’ensemble de l’écosystème de la finance durable grâce à des présentations assurées par un panel d’intervenants de divers horizons. Ce cours s’adresse aussi bien aux étudiants qu’aux professionnels et décideurs politiques, afin de répondre à leurs attentes spécifiques.

Qu’est-ce que c’est ?

  • Un outil de formation en ligne gratuit et ouvert Ă  tous avec l’ambition de devenir une rĂ©fĂ©rence sur le marchĂ©
  • Un projet Ă©laborĂ© Ă  partir d’une base de connaissances fondĂ©e sur une approche scientifique
  • En partenariat avec Fondation Horizon & Beyond, l’Institut de Finance Durable, l’Institut Louis Bachelier, leurs membres et des reprĂ©sentants de masters spĂ©cialisĂ©s

Ce qu’il offre ?

  • Une rĂ©fĂ©rence au format mĂ©dia, indĂ©pendante, Ĺ“cumĂ©nique et applicable
  • Un outil de rĂ©fĂ©rence pour la formation continue
  • Plusieurs niveaux d’expertise
  • AdaptĂ© Ă  la formation initiale
  • Une composante de formation sur des sujets actuels et non stabilisĂ©s.

Quelques concepts clés que vous découvrirez dans ce MOOC !

  • Critères sociaux, environnementaux et de gouvernance
  • Double matĂ©rialitĂ©
  • Approches extra-financières
  • Taxonomie et rĂ©glementation
  • Produits financiers responsables