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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T133000
DTSTAMP:20260815T163602
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SUMMARY:Christos MAKRIDIS (Arizona State University) "Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption"
DESCRIPTION:Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 18 Mars 2024 \nSalle 3001 \nChristos MAKRIDIS (Arizona State University) “Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption” \nAbstract: Households often learn about the macroeconomy through social communications. We show how communication via social networks allows idiosyncratic shocks to propagate into meaningful macroeconomic responses. We first motivate such a mechanism by showing the responses of daily consumption spending of U.S. counties to plausibly exogenous variations in their social-network exposure to the COVID-19 conditions of geographically remote regions. Various identification strategies confirm that the detected consumption responses were primarily through the channel of expectations\, rather than preference interdependence or physical infection risks. Then\, we incorporate a belief formation mechanism through social networks into an otherwise standard heterogeneous-agent consumption model. We show that a pandemic-augmented version of this model\, where infections initially hit a fraction of more connected regions and gradually propagated via social networks\, produces macroeconomic dynamics more aligned with the empirical patterns of aggregate consumption and cross-sectional variations. We also show that such a mechanism is more relevant when the initial shocks hit the more connected agents and when the influences are more dispersed in the network. \nOrganizer : Julien PRAT (CREST)  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/christos-makridis-arizona-state-university-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T161500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T173000
DTSTAMP:20260815T163602
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LAST-MODIFIED:20240314T084744Z
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SUMMARY:Frank Windmeijer (University Oxford) - "The Falsification Adaptive Set in Linear Models with Instrumental Variables that Violate the Exclusion or Conditional Exogeneity Restriction"
DESCRIPTION:4Paris Econometrics Seminar CREST – PSE – Sciences Po\nTime: 04:15 pm – 05:30 pm\nDate: 09th of October\nRoom : 3001 \n  \nSoonwoo Kwon (Brown University) – Testing Mechanisms \nAbstract : \nEconomists are often interested in the mechanisms by which a particular treatment affects an outcome. This paper develops tests for the “sharp null of full mediation” that the treatment D operates on the outcome Y only through a particular conjectured mechanism (or sets of mechanisms) M. A key observation is that if D is randomly assigned and has a monotone effect on M\, then D is a valid instrumental variable for the LATE of M on Y. Existing tools for testing the validity of the LATE assumptions can thus be used to test the sharp null of full mediation when M and D are binary. We extend these results to settings where M is multi-valued or multi-dimensional. We further provide methods for lower-bounding the size of the alternative mechanisms when the sharp null is rejected. An advantage of our approach relative to existing tools for mediation analysis is that it does not require stringent assumptions about how M is assigned. \nCoauthored with Jonathan Roth \n  \nOrganizers:\nElia Lapenta – CREST/ENSAE\nPhilipp Ketz – CNRS/PSE\nClément de Chaisemartin – Sciences Po \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/frank-windmeijer-university-oxford-the-falsification-adaptive-set-in-linear-models-with-instrumental-variables-that-violate-the-exclusion-or-conditional-exogeneity-restriction/
CATEGORIES:Paris Econometrics Seminar
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