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X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://crest.science
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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TZID:Europe/Helsinki
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TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0300
TZNAME:EEST
DTSTART:20250330T010000
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DTSTART:20251026T010000
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DTSTART;VALUE=DATE:20251210
DTEND;VALUE=DATE:20251213
DTSTAMP:20260710T005546
CREATED:20251208T092822Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251208T092834Z
UID:18626-1765324800-1765583999@crest.science
SUMMARY:Workshop on Advances in MCMC Methods
DESCRIPTION:Nicolas Chopin will participate to the workshop on Advances in MCMC Methods and present his paper “What is actual the complexity of tempering (SMC)? \nWhat is actual the complexity of tempering (SMC) ? \nThere is some discrepancy in the literature regarding the complexity of tempering with respect to d\, the dimension of the sampling space. The complexity is partly determined by the length of the temperature ladder\, that is\, the sequence of tempering exponents 0=lambda_0 < … < lambda_T = 1. In the AIS (annealed importance sampling) literature\, it is often recommended to take T = O(d). Some SMC (Sequential Monte Carlo) papers instead suggest that ESS-based criteria leads to T=O(d^{1/2}).\nIn this talk\, I will present results from both a recent paper (with Francesca Crucinio and Anna Korba\, ICML 2024) and some preliminary work (with Yvann Le Fay and Matti Vihola) that shed light on this discrepancy. Basically\, for moments with respect to the target distribution\, T=O(d^{1/2})$ suffices to leads to estimates with variance O(1). However\, for the normalising constant\, variance is then O(T) = O(d^{1/2})$.\nThe actual complexity of the considered sampler will also depend\, of course\, on the mixing properties of the MCMC kernels used to rejuvenate the particles. I will explain how we can exploit some existing\, non-asymptotic results on such kernels to obtain the overall complexity of the sampler. \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/advances-in-mcmc-methods/
CATEGORIES:Conferences and Workshops,Statistics
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20251212T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20251212T133000
DTSTAMP:20260710T005546
CREATED:20251124T084351Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251124T084834Z
UID:18584-1765541700-1765546200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Basile GRASSI  (Bocconi University) "The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income"
DESCRIPTION:[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 12th  December 2025 \nSalle 3049 \nBasile GRASSI (Bocconi University) “The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income” \nAbstract: In 2004\, 75 million people across 10 countries joined the European Union (EU). In the subsequent 15 years\, their GDP per capita doubled. Synthetic control methods show the new members’ GDP per capita was 32% higher in 2019 thanks to the EU adhesion. I do not find a significant effect on the pre-2004 members. These findings are robust to various tests. Growth was primarily driven by the Solow residual. Data show rapid convergence in the main aggregates and declining misallocation measures\, whereas TFP has not fully converged. These results point toward a large positive impact of the EU. \n  \nOrganizer :Alessandro RIBONI \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/basile-grassi-bocconi-university-the-eu-miracle-when-75-million-reach-high-income/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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