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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T110000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T120000
DTSTAMP:20260715T072221
CREATED:20241014T063527Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20241120T065642Z
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SUMMARY:Andrew HARVEY (University of Cambridge) " Speculative markets: bubbles or balloons?"
DESCRIPTION:[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Finance & Financial Econometrics : \nTime: 11.00 am\nDate: 28th of November 2024\nRoom 3001 \nAndrew HARVEY (University of Cambridge) “Speculative markets: bubbles or balloons? ” \nAbstract : Speculative markets may be characterized by sharp falls after a slow build up. Sometimes the converse happens. We suggest a number of mechanisms that are able to produce this kind of behaviour and we demonstrate their plausibility by simulation. The models are then fitted to daily data on Bitcoin. In constructing these models we show that it is essential to take account of volatility and non-normality. We also investigate the possibility of a dynamic tail index. The conclusion\, at least for Bitcoin\, is that speculative\nmarkets are more likely to behave like balloons\, where there is rapid inflation followed by a slow decline\, rather than like bubbles. \n \nOrganizers: \n\nJean-Michel ZAKOIAN (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]\n
URL:https://crest.science/event/andrew-harvey-university-of-cambridge-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Finance-Insurance,Financial Econometrics,Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T110000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T123000
DTSTAMP:20260715T072221
CREATED:20241114T090418Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20241114T090418Z
UID:17551-1732791600-1732797000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Jose CORREA (Universidad de Chile) - Monotone Randomized Apportionment
DESCRIPTION:Statistical Seminar: Every Monday at 2:00 pm.\nTime: 11:00 am – 12:30 pm\nDate: 28th november 2024\nPlace: Amphi 200 \n  \nJose CORREA (Universidad de Chile) – Monotone Randomized Apportionment \n  \n Abstract:  \nApportionment is the act of distributing the seats of a legislature among political parties (or states) in proportion to their vote shares (or populations). A famous impossibility by Balinski and Young (2001) shows that no apportionment method can be proportional up to one seat (quota) while also responding monotonically to changes in the votes (population monotonicity). Grimmett (2004) proposed to overcome this impossibility by randomizing the apportionment\, which can achieve quota as well as perfect proportionality and monotonicity — at least in terms of the expected numberof seats awarded to each party. Still\, the correlations between the seats awarded to different parties may exhibit bizarre non-monotonicities. When parties or voters care about joint events\, such as whether a coalition of parties reaches a majority\, these non-monotonicities can cause paradoxes including incentives for strategic voting. \n  \n  \nIn this paper\, we propose monotonicity axioms ruling out these paradoxes\, and study which of them can be satisfied jointly with Grimmett’s axioms. Essentially\, we require that\, if a set of parties all receive more votes\, the probability of those parties jointly receiving more seats should increase. Our work draws on a rich literature on unequal probability sampling in statistics (studied as dependent randomized rounding in computer science). Our main result shows that a sampling scheme due to Sampford (1967) satisfies Grimmett’s axioms and a notion of higher-order correlation monotonicity. \n  \n  \nAuthors : J. Correa\, P. Gölz\, U. Schmidt-Kraepelin\, J. Tucker-Foltz\, V. Verdugo \n  \n  \nOrganizers : Vianney PERCHET\, Jaouad MOURTADA\, Anna KORBA \n  \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/jose-correa-universidad-de-chile-monotone-randomized-apportionment/
CATEGORIES:Seminars,Statistics
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241128T133000
DTSTAMP:20260715T072221
CREATED:20241125T113350Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20241125T123726Z
UID:17587-1732795200-1732800600@crest.science
SUMMARY:Stéphane BENVENISTE "The contribution of personal writings to the selection process of a French elite graduate school"
DESCRIPTION:Sociology Seminar \nTime: 12:00 pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 28th of november\nRoom : 3001 \n  \nStéphane BENVENISTE “The contribution of personal writings to the selection process of a French elite graduate school” \nAbstract : While holding a higher education degree strongly determines professional trajectories\, access to these programs remains highly unequal\, especially in selective tracks. Two distinct objectives advocate for broadening their recruitment. First\, the selection process could better identify candidates who are most suited to the professional sectors these tracks prepare for (skills matching). Second\, the selection process could aim to diversify the socio-demographic profiles of graduates and\, by extension\, of certain professional sectors (diversity promotion). These two objectives\, albeit not contradictory\, do not always align. “Holistic” admission processes illustrate this ambivalence\, as they evaluate candidates based not only on their academic performance but also on their backgrounds and their ability to emphasize these in personal writings. Used and debated for several decades in the Anglo-Saxon world\, these processes were introduced in France via the Parcoursup platform. By reforming its admission process in 2021\, Sciences Po positioned itself as a pioneering institution\, allocating a significant weight to personal writings (cover letter\, extracurricular activities\, essay)\, accounting for a quarter of the final admission score.\nThis article examines the profiles of candidates benefiting from the introduction of these personal writings in the admission process\, using data from  13\,000 applications to Sciences Po in 2021\, that include 800 applications from programs for territorial and social diversity (Conventions d’Éducation\nPrioritaires). We analyze the exam scores and admissibility\, considering both the candidates’ profiles and the content of their writings. Personal writings are assessed based on their vocabulary richness (lexical density) and thematic content (k-means classification). Although these data do not allow to draw conclusions about the quality of skill matching—since they do not track career paths—\, our analyses show that including personal writings in the selection process overturns the traditional academic ranking\, without significantly affecting the social distribution of those eligible (or\nadmitted) to the institution. \n  \nOrganizers:\nPaola TUBARO (Pôle sociologie CREST) \nSofian EL ATIFI (Pôle sociologie CREST) \nPatrick PRÄG (Pôle sociologie CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/ewa-batyra-center-for-demographics-studies-ced-barcelona-the-contribution-of-personal-writings-to-the-selection-process-of-a-french-elite-graduate-school/
CATEGORIES:Seminars,Sociology
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