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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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DTSTART:20240331T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T133000
DTSTAMP:20260710T204132
CREATED:20240131T074748Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240305T155618Z
UID:16564-1710764100-1710768600@crest.science
SUMMARY:Christos MAKRIDIS (Arizona State University) "Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption"
DESCRIPTION:Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 18 Mars 2024 \nSalle 3001 \nChristos MAKRIDIS (Arizona State University) “Learning from Friends in a Pandemic: Social Networks and the Macroeconomic Response of Consumption” \nAbstract: Households often learn about the macroeconomy through social communications. We show how communication via social networks allows idiosyncratic shocks to propagate into meaningful macroeconomic responses. We first motivate such a mechanism by showing the responses of daily consumption spending of U.S. counties to plausibly exogenous variations in their social-network exposure to the COVID-19 conditions of geographically remote regions. Various identification strategies confirm that the detected consumption responses were primarily through the channel of expectations\, rather than preference interdependence or physical infection risks. Then\, we incorporate a belief formation mechanism through social networks into an otherwise standard heterogeneous-agent consumption model. We show that a pandemic-augmented version of this model\, where infections initially hit a fraction of more connected regions and gradually propagated via social networks\, produces macroeconomic dynamics more aligned with the empirical patterns of aggregate consumption and cross-sectional variations. We also show that such a mechanism is more relevant when the initial shocks hit the more connected agents and when the influences are more dispersed in the network. \nOrganizer : Julien PRAT (CREST)  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/christos-makridis-arizona-state-university-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC:20240318T130000
DTEND;TZID=UTC:20240318T130000
DTSTAMP:20260710T204132
CREATED:20231019T100349Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240306T134200Z
UID:16102-1710766800-1710766800@crest.science
SUMMARY:An Introduction to Conformal Prediction and Distribution-Free Inference\, Rina Foygel Barber (University of Chicago)
DESCRIPTION:  \n\n\n\n  \n  \nSCHEDULE\n  \nMonday\n  \n18th March 2024\n  \nFrom 13:00 to 16:15\n  \nRoom 2033\n\n\n  \nThursday\n  \n21st March 2024\n  \nFrom 13:00 to 16:15\n  \nRoom 2033\n\n\n\nAims and objectives\n\nThis short course will introduce the framework of distribution-free statistical inference\, and will provide an in-depth overview of both theoretical foundations and practical methodologies in this field. We will cover methods including holdout set methods\, conformal prediction\, cross-validation based methods\, calibration procedures\, and more\, with emphasis on how these methods can be adapted to a range of settings to achieve robust uncertainty quantification without compromising on accuracy. The course will also introduce the theoretical results behind these methods\, including the role of exchangeability (and its variants) in establishing the distribution-free validity of these methods\, as well as more classical theoretical results establishing how these distribution-free methods relate to the answers we would obtain via parametric models or other classical assumption-based techniques. Our theoretical overview will also cover hardness results that carve out the space of inference questions that are possible or impossible to answer within the distribution-free framework. \n\n\n
URL:https://crest.science/event/an-introduction-to-conformal-prediction-and-distribution-free-inference/
LOCATION:2033
CATEGORIES:Doctoral Courses,Statistics
ORGANIZER;CN="Jaouad%20Mourtada":MAILTO:jaouad.mourtada@ensae.fr
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T161500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T180000
DTSTAMP:20260710T204132
CREATED:20240313T134503Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240313T134503Z
UID:16814-1710778500-1710784800@crest.science
SUMMARY:CEPR WE ARE Seminar Series
DESCRIPTION:Sara Signorelli will present “The Wage of Temporary Agency Workers”. \nHost: Pauline Rossi \nhttps://cepr.org/events/event-series/women-economics-advancing-research-economics \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/cepr-we-are-seminar-series/
CATEGORIES:Conferences and Workshops,Economics
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T161500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20240318T173000
DTSTAMP:20260710T204132
CREATED:20240314T084228Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240314T084744Z
UID:16840-1710778500-1710783000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Frank Windmeijer (University Oxford) - "The Falsification Adaptive Set in Linear Models with Instrumental Variables that Violate the Exclusion or Conditional Exogeneity Restriction"
DESCRIPTION:4Paris Econometrics Seminar CREST – PSE – Sciences Po\nTime: 04:15 pm – 05:30 pm\nDate: 09th of October\nRoom : 3001 \n  \nSoonwoo Kwon (Brown University) – Testing Mechanisms \nAbstract : \nEconomists are often interested in the mechanisms by which a particular treatment affects an outcome. This paper develops tests for the “sharp null of full mediation” that the treatment D operates on the outcome Y only through a particular conjectured mechanism (or sets of mechanisms) M. A key observation is that if D is randomly assigned and has a monotone effect on M\, then D is a valid instrumental variable for the LATE of M on Y. Existing tools for testing the validity of the LATE assumptions can thus be used to test the sharp null of full mediation when M and D are binary. We extend these results to settings where M is multi-valued or multi-dimensional. We further provide methods for lower-bounding the size of the alternative mechanisms when the sharp null is rejected. An advantage of our approach relative to existing tools for mediation analysis is that it does not require stringent assumptions about how M is assigned. \nCoauthored with Jonathan Roth \n  \nOrganizers:\nElia Lapenta – CREST/ENSAE\nPhilipp Ketz – CNRS/PSE\nClément de Chaisemartin – Sciences Po \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/frank-windmeijer-university-oxford-the-falsification-adaptive-set-in-linear-models-with-instrumental-variables-that-violate-the-exclusion-or-conditional-exogeneity-restriction/
CATEGORIES:Paris Econometrics Seminar
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