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DTSTART:20210328T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20210517T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20210517T133000
DTSTAMP:20260712T155816
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LAST-MODIFIED:20210512T055345Z
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SUMMARY:Luca FORNARO (CREI\, UPF and Barcelona GSE)\,  "A Theory of Monetary Union and Financial Integration"
DESCRIPTION:The Macroeconomics Seminar: \nTime: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 17th of May 2021\nby Zoom\n\n\nLuca FORNARO (CREI\, UPF and Barcelona GSE)\, “A Theory of Monetary Union and Financial Integration” \nAbstract : Since the creation of the euro\, capital flows among member countries have been large and volatile. Motivated by this fact\, I provide a theory connecting the exchange rate regime to\nfinancial integration. The key feature of the model is that monetary policy affects the value of collateral that creditors seize upon default. Under flexible exchange rates\, national governments\ncan expropriate foreign creditors by depreciating the exchange rate\, which induces investors to impose tight constraints on international borrowing. Creating a monetary union\, by eliminating this source of currency risk\, increases financial integration among member countries. This process\, however\, does not necessarily lead to higher welfare. The reason is that a high degree of capital mobility can generate multiple equilibria\, with bad equilibria characterized by inefficient capital flights. Capital controls or fiscal transfers can eliminate bad equilibria\, but their implementation requires international cooperation. \nOrganizers:\n\nJean-Baptiste MICHAU (Polytechnique-CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n\n
URL:https://crest.science/event/luca-fornaro-crei-upf-and-barcelona-gse-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20210517T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20210517T151500
DTSTAMP:20260712T155816
CREATED:20210409T105522Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20210506T041918Z
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SUMMARY:Larry WASSERMAN (Carnegie Mellon University) - "Causal Inference in the Time of Covid-19 "
DESCRIPTION:Statistical Seminar: Every Monday at 2:00 pm.\nTime: 2:00 pm – 3:15 pm\nDate: 17th of May 2021\nPlace: Visio\nLarry WASSERMAN (Carnegie Mellon University) – “Causal Inference in the Time of Covid-19 ” \nAbstract: I will discuss our recent work on developing causal models for estimating the effect of social mobility on deaths from Covid-19. We propose a marginal structural model motivated by a basic epidemic model. We estimate the counterfactual time series of deaths under interventions on mobility. We conduct several types of sensitivity analyses. We find that the data support the idea that reduced mobility causes reduced deaths\, but the conclusion comes with caveats. There is evidence of sensitivity to model misspecification and unmeasured confounding which implies that the size of the causal effect needs to be interpreted with caution. While there is little doubt that the effect is real\, our work highlights the challenges in drawing causal inferences from pandemic data. This is joint work with Matteo Bonvini\, Edward Kennedy and Valerie Ventura. \n  \nOrganizers:\nCristina BUTUCEA (CREST)\, Alexandre TSYBAKOV (CREST)\, Karim LOUNICI (CMAP) \, Zoltan SZABO (CMAP)\nSponsors:\nCREST-CMAP \n\n
URL:https://crest.science/event/larry-wasserman-carnegie-mellon-university-tba/
CATEGORIES:Statistics
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