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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20220912T121500
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SUMMARY:Yuta Takahashi (Hitotsubashi University) "Hidden Stagflation"
DESCRIPTION:The Macroeconomics Seminar:\nTime: 12:15 pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 12th of September 2022 \nRoom 3001 \nYuta TAKAHASHI (Hitotsubashi University) “Hidden Stagflation” \nAbstract : We present evidence that the rise in inflation in Japan since 2014 is a result of a hidden stagflation: the relative prices of durable consumption and ICT investment goods stopped declining\, reflecting technology stagnation and exerting an inflationary pressure on the economy and; the real side of the Japanese economy simultaneously started stagnating even further. We construct a multi-good monetary model to account for these facts together and quantify the impact of the technology stagnation on the aggregate inflation rate. We develop a new sign restriction approach to construct informative lower bounds to the impact of the technology stagnation on long-run inflation without relying on the exact Euler equation and some of the balanced growth path properties. By using the lower bounds\, we find that inflation would be close to 0% or even negative without the technology stagnation. Moreover\, the technology stag- nation explains a sizable fraction of the observed slowdown in the real GDP and consumption growth. Our findings challenge the conventional view that Japan emerged from long-lasting deflation owing to the unconventional monetary policies. Finally\, we apply our analysis to European countries and uncover the hidden stagflation there as well. \nOrganizers:\nOlivier LOISEL (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/yuta-takahashi-hitotsubashi-university-hidden-stagflation/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics
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