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DTSTART:20250330T010000
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DTSTART:20251026T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20250512T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20250512T133000
DTSTAMP:20260815T134444
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SUMMARY:Yuriy GORODNICHENKO (UC Berkeley and NBER) "The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households' Beliefs and Actions"
DESCRIPTION:[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate :12th  May 2025 \nSalle 3001 \nYuriy GORODNICHENKO (University of California) “The Causal Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Households’ Beliefs and Actions” \nAbstract:We implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that generates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncertainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations  separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key findings. First\, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months\, while a higher expected level of inflation increases them. Second\, an increase in uncertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towards safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third\, higher inflation uncertainty encourages household job search consistent with a strong precautionary motive for labor supply\, leading to higher subsequent employment among the unemployed and less part-time employment among the alreadyemployed. Finally\, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a different effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is crucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decisions and in policy communication.  \nJoint work : Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank and CEPR)\, Olivier Coibion (UT Austin and NBER)\, Geoff Kenny (European Central Bank) \nOrganizer : Giovanni RICCO \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/yuriy-gorodnichenko-university-of-california-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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