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Yannick HOGA (Universität Duisburg-Essen) "Testing for Serial Extremal Dependence in Time Series Residuals"

March 18 @ 10:30 am - 11:30 am
Time: 10:30
Date: 18th of March 2021
Place: Zoom
Yannick HOGA (Universität Duisburg-Essen) “Testing for Serial Extremal Dependence in Time Series Residuals”
Abstract : We propose a specification test for conditional location–scale models based on extremal dependence properties of the standardized residuals. We do so comparing the left-over serial extremal dependence  as measured by the pre-asymptotic tail copula – with that arising under serial independence at different lags. Our main theoretical results show that the proposed Portmanteau-type test statistics have nuisance parameter-free asymptotic limits. The test statistics are easy to compute, as they only depend on the standardized residuals, and critical values are likewise easily obtained from the limiting distributions. This contrasts with extant tests (based, e.g., on autocorrelations of squared residuals), where test statistics depend on the parameter estimator of the model and critical values may need to be bootstrapped. We show that our test performs well in simulations. An empirical application to the 30 Dow Jones constituents illustrates that our test can uncover violations of residual serial independence that are not picked up by standard autocorrelation-based specification tests.
Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN (CREST )
 : ENSAE ParisTech
5, avenue Henry Le Chatelier
91120 Palaiseau
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