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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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TZID:Europe/Helsinki
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DTSTART:20260329T010000
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DTSTART:20261025T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20260109T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20260109T133000
DTSTAMP:20260709T225003
CREATED:20251222T105256Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260102T074708Z
UID:18660-1767960900-1767965400@crest.science
SUMMARY:Samantha HORN  (University of Chicago ) "Inaccurate Beliefs about Skill Decay”
DESCRIPTION:[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 09th  January 2026 \nSalle 3001 \nSamantha HORN (University of Chicago ) “Inaccurate Beliefs about Skill Decay” \nAbstract: Human capital investment decisions often rely on beliefs about how long skills are retained. We test the accuracy of these beliefs by asking participants to learn a new skill and predict their performance after a period of non-use. Participants substantially underestimate skill decay\, with average errors ranging from 28% to 59% across tasks. Beliefs adjust after experiencing decay\, suggesting that misprediction is specific to delayed performance. Miscalibrated beliefs predict lower demand for refresher training and appear partly motivated: participants are more accurate when forecasting others’ skill decay. Exploratory variable-importance analyses further suggest that participants underweight age\, a strong predictor of performance decline. These findings point to systematic errors in forecasting skill retention. \nJoint work : Daniel Connolly and George Loewenstein.  \n  \n  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/samantha-horn-university-of-chicago-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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