BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//CREST - ECPv5.1.3//NONSGML v1.0//EN
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:CREST
X-ORIGINAL-URL:https://crest.science
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/Helsinki
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0300
TZNAME:EEST
DTSTART:20240331T010000
END:DAYLIGHT
BEGIN:STANDARD
TZOFFSETFROM:+0300
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
TZNAME:EET
DTSTART:20241027T010000
END:STANDARD
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241002T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20241002T133000
DTSTAMP:20260710T135137
CREATED:20240925T141757Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20240925T141822Z
UID:17352-1727871300-1727875800@crest.science
SUMMARY:Patrick PINTUS (Aix-Marseille) - "Specific Sensitivity to Rare and Extreme Events : Quasi-Complete Black Swan Avoidance vs Partial Jackpot Seeking in Rat Decision-Making"
DESCRIPTION:Séminaire Microéconomie : Tous les mercredis \nHeure : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 02/10/2024 \nSalle : 3001 \nPatrick PINTUS (Aix-Marseille) – “Specific Sensitivity to Rare and Extreme Events : Quasi-Complete Black Swan Avoidance vs Partial Jackpot Seeking in Rat Decision-Making” Mickaël Degoulet\, Louis-Matis Willem\, Christelle Baunez Stéphane Luchini\, Patrick A. Pintus \nCV : Most studies assessing animal behavior under risk rely on probabilities that are typically larger than 10%. To study Decision-Making in uncertain conditions\, we explore a novel experimental and modelling approach that aims at measuring the extent to which rats are sensitive – and how they respond – to outcomes that are both rare (probabilities smaller than 1%) and extreme in their consequences (deviations larger than 10 times the standard error). In a four-armed bandit task\, stochastic gains (sugar pellets) and losses (time-out punishments) are such that extremely large – but rare – outcomes materialize or not depending on the chosen options. All rats feature both limited diversification\, mixing two options out of four\, and sensitivity to rare and extreme outcomes despite their infrequent occurrence\, by combining options with avoidance of extreme losses (Black Swans) and exposure to extreme gains (Jackpots). Notably\, this sensitivity turns out to be onesided for the main phenotype in our sample: it features a quasi-complete avoidance of Black Swans\, so as to escape extreme losses almost completely\, which contrasts with an exposure to Jackpots that is partial only. The flip side of observed choices is that they entail smaller gains and larger losses in the frequent domain compared to alternatives. We have introduced sensitivity to Black Swans and Jackpots in a new class of augmented Reinforcement Learning models and we have estimated their parameters using observed choices and outcomes for each rat. Adding such specific sensitivity results in a good fit of the selected model – and simulated behaviors that are close – to behavioral observations\, whereas a standard Q-Learning model without sensitivity is rejected for almost all rats. This model reproducing the main phenotype suggests that frequent outcomes are treated separately from rare and extreme ones through different weights in Decision-Making. \nOrganisateurs : \nJulien COMBE (Pôle d’Economie du CREST) \n​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Yves Le YAOUNQ (Pôle d’Economie du CREST \n) Matias NUNEZ (Pôle d’Economie du CREST) ​​​​​​’Economie du CREST)CRÊTE) \nCommanditaires :\n CREST \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/patrick-pintus-aix-marseille-specific-sensitivity-to-rare-and-extreme-events-quasi-complete-black-swan-avoidance-vs-partial-jackpot-seeking-in-rat-decision-making/
CATEGORIES:Microeconomics,Seminars
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR