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DTSTART:20190331T010000
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DTSTART:20191027T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20190612T001500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20190612T133000
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CREATED:20190319T125951Z
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UID:12244-1560298500-1560346200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Larry Samuelson (Yale) - "The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference"
DESCRIPTION:CREST Microeconomics Seminar :  \n\nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30pm\nDate: 12th June 2019\nPlace: Room 3001.\nLarry Samuelson (Yale) – “The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference” \nAbstract: “Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals\, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief\, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should see no trade in the market. But if the agents in the market are not Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief\, then it is no longer obvious that the market outcome aggregates or conveys information. In this paper\, we examine a stylized prediction market comprised of Bayesian agents whose inferences are based on different models of the underlying environment. We explore a basic tension—the differences in models that give rise to the possibility of trade generally preclude the possibility of perfect information aggregation. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nRoxana Fernandez Machado (CREST)\, Marie Laure Allain (CREST)\, and Linda Schilling (CREST)\nSponsors:\nCREST\nLunch registration:\nfood provided\, no registration needed\n\n  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/larry-samuelson-yale-the-wisdom-of-a-confused-crowd-model-based-inference/
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:Microeconomics
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