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X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
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TZID:Europe/Helsinki
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DTSTART:20260329T010000
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DTSTART:20261025T010000
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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20260413T121500
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20260413T133000
DTSTAMP:20260709T193707
CREATED:20260330T072457Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20260330T092851Z
UID:18894-1776082500-1776087000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Julien DUBOIS (CREST) "Phasing Out Fossil Fuels: A Theory to Disentangle Transition Forces"
DESCRIPTION:[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]Macro seminar\nTime : 12h15 – 13h30 \nDate : 13th  April 2026 \nSalle 3001 \nJulien DUBOIS (CREST) “Phasing Out Fossil Fuels: A Theory to Disentangle Transition Forces” \nAbstract: Can growth and emission use be decoupled\, and if so\, through which mechanism? This paper develops a framework in which three forces drive the energy transition: (i) capital installation\, where investment in cleaner vintages reduces emission intensity; (ii) Directed Disembodied Technical Change (DDTC)\, where R&D shifts the production frontier; and (iii) post-installation adjustment\, where already-installed capital adapts its emission intensity over time. The third force is typically omitted from the literature\, which treats capital as either fully rigid or fully flexible after installation. I capture it explicitly through a parameter θ ∈ [0\,1] measuring the intensity of post-installation adjustment frictions\, and show this is of first-order importance\, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Qualitatively\, θ governs how the three forces interact: in particular\, DDTC affects capital vintages heterogeneously and can perversely delay the scrapping of emission-intensive machines. Quantitatively\, Bayesian estimation on U.S. data (1949-2024) shows that the assumed value of θ alone drives the estimated elasticity of substitution between capital and emissions from near zero to near unity.\n \nOrganizer : Suzanne BELLULE  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/julien-dubois-crest-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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