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DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Helsinki:20261012T121500
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SUMMARY:Federico DI PACE (ENSAI) "Brexit and Cost of Living: A Tale of Two Phases"
DESCRIPTION:Séminaire Macroéconomie \nLundi 12 octobre 2026 \n12h15 – 13h30 \n  \nSalle 3001 \nFederico DI PACE (ENSAI) “Brexit and Cost of Living: A Tale of Two Phases” \n  \nSummary: \nWe estimate the effect of Brexit on UK consumer prices using synthetic-control methods. By 2024Q4\, UK consumer prices were about 7 percentage points higher than in a synthetic no-Brexit counterfactual\, accounting for more than one-quarter of the total increase in the UK price level since the referendum. The effect unfolded in two phases: a referendum or negotiation phase\, consistent with sterling depreciation and gradual exchange-rate passthrough\, and a post-TCA phase\, consistent with the materialization of higher trade costs and non-tariff barriers. \nAdditional counterfactual exercises for the nominal effective exchange rate and real GDP support this interpretation\, showing an immediate sterling depreciation\, a more gradual CPI response\, and a progressive weakening of UK activity relative to its counterfactual. Financial-market evidence and item-level CPI regressions further show that Brexit news raised short- and medium-horizon inflation expectations and that price increases were larger for good categories more exposed to imports. \nUltimately\, Brexit generated a persistent increase in the UK price level\, even though inflation eventually returned toward its benchmark. \n  \nJoint work: Giacomo Mangiante (Bank of Italy)\, Riccardo M. MASOLO (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) \n  \n  \n
URL:https://crest.science/event/federico-di-pace-ensai-t-b-a/
CATEGORIES:Macroeconomics,Seminars
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