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CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME:CREST
X-ORIGINAL-URL:http://crest.science
X-WR-CALDESC:Events for CREST
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181030T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181030T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181022T093926Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181022T093926Z
UID:9607-1540901700-1540906200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Enrique FATAS (Loughborough University & University of Pennsylvania) - “Democracy fights in darkness"
DESCRIPTION:\nExperimental Economics Seminar: \nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm\nDate: 30th of October 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nEnrique FATAS (Loughborough University & University of Pennsylvania) – “Democracy fights in darkness”\, joint work with Jordi Brandts (Instituto de Analysis Economico & Barcelona Graduate School of Economics)\, Catherine Eckel (Texas A&M University)\, and Shaun Hargreaves Heap (King’s College London). \nAbstract: It is an empirical regularity that democratic countries go to war with each other less than pairs of dictatorships (the so called dyadic interaction). The question is whether this relation is causal: do democracies make wars less likely? In Experiment 1\, we study potential causal mechanisms: voting accountability and the emergence of norms of peaceful conflict resolution. Democratic or dictatorial conditions are first exogenously imposed on distinct groups of participants. Groups are then paired\, and play a Tullock conflict game with each other. Our measure of a group’s bellicosity is their investment in this conflict\, decided by voters (the dictator) in democratic (non-democratic) regimes. As in a final stage\, participants decide how much to contribute to a public good from the resources not invested in conflict. We find no evidence of either causal mechanism linking democracies to peace\, as democracies fight other democracies are significantly more bellicose than non-democratic regimes. Similar results are obtained when we repeat the analysis for asymmetric interactions of democratic and non-democratic regimes in Experiment 2 (the monadic interaction. In Experiments 3 and 4\, we expand our definition of democratic institutions by adding a deliberation stage\, giving full freedom of expression to all participants (in both democratic and non-democratic regimes). While deliberation dramatically reduces bellicosity (and increases contributions to the public good) in democratic regimes\, it significantly increases investment in conflict in inclusive dictatorships. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nGuillaume Hollard (CREST) & Anett John (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \nLunch registration:\nfood provided\, no registration \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/enrique-fatas-loughborough-pennsylvania-universities-democracy-fights-in-darkness
CATEGORIES:Economics
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181031T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181031T150000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181024T085624Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181024T085624Z
UID:9610-1540994400-1540998000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif (CREST) - "Consistency of Variational Bayes"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Stats-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar. \nTime: 14:00 pm – 15:00 pm\nDate: 31st of October 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nBadr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif (CREST) – “Consistency of Variational Bayes” \nAim of the talk: Presentation of general concentration results on Variational Bayes approximations in statistics with a focus on mixture models. \n\n\n\nSponsors:\nCREST \n\n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/badr-eddine-cherief-abdellatif-crest-consistency-of-variational-bayes
LOCATION:ENSAE ParisTech\, 5\, avenue Henry Le Chatelier\, 91120 Palaiseau\, France
CATEGORIES:Economics,Joint Statistics-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar,Statistics
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181104T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181104T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181010T061406Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181105T085624Z
UID:9580-1541333700-1541338200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Abdoulaye NDIAYE (NYU Stern and Chicago Fed) "Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation"
DESCRIPTION:Time: 12:15pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 05th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nAbdoulaye NDIAYE (NYU Stern and Chicago Fed) “Flexible Retirement and Optimal Taxation” \nAbstract : This paper studies optimal income taxes and retirement benefits in a life-cycle model with an intensive margin of labor supply and an endogenous retirement age. The government insures and redistributes resources across individuals who privately observe persistent shocks to their productivity. In this environment\, the optimal labor tax is hump-shaped in age\, unlike in existing models with no endogenous retirement choice\, in which the optimal tax is everywhere increasing. Because of the retirement margin\, the total Frisch elasticity of labor supply increases with age. This elasticity effect flattens the labor tax for old workers relative to the model without an extensive margin. In addition\, as high-productivity workers retire later than low-productivity workers\, the distribution of productivity in the labor force features\, over time\, a higher mean and lower variance than in the general population. This novel composition effect pushes for a labor tax that declines for old workers. Optimal policy balances these effects with the insurance benefits of taxation\, yielding the hump-shape in tax rates. In numerical simulations\, the optimum achieves sizable welfare gains that approximately optimal age-dependent taxes fail to capture under the current US Social Security system. Yet\, an optimal combination of age-dependent linear taxes with increasing-in-age delayed retirement credits generates welfare gains that are close to those from the optimum. \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/tommaso-monacelli-bocconi-university-igier-and-cepr-real-interest-rates-and-productivity-in-small-open-economies-joint-with-luca-sala-and-daniele-siena-2-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-3-2-4
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Macroeconomics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181105T153000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181105T163000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20180925T091311Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20180925T091311Z
UID:9556-1541431800-1541435400@crest.science
SUMMARY:DE ANGELIS Tiziano (The University of Leeds) - "Dynkin Games with Incomplete and Asymmetric "
DESCRIPTION:1st Monday of each month \nTime: 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm\nDate: 05 th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3105 \nDE ANGELIS Tiziano (The University of Leeds) – “Dynkin Games with Incomplete and Asymmetric ” \nAbstract : We study Nash equilibria for a two-player zero-sum optimal stopping game with incomplete and asymmetric information. In our set-up\, the drift of the underlying diffusion process is unknown to one player (incomplete information feature)\, but known to the other one (asymmetric information feature). We formulate the problem and reduce it to a fully Markovian setup where the uninformed player optimises over stopping times and the informed one uses randomised stopping times (in order to hide their informational advantage). Then we provide a general verification result which allows us to find Nash equilibria by solving suitable quasi-variational inequalities with some non-standard constraints. Finally\, we solve explicitly an example with linear payoffs with applications to short selling of stocks. \nJoint work : Erick Ekstrom (Uppsala) and Kristoffer Glover (Sidney) \n \n \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/claudio-fontana-universite-paris-diderot-the-value-of-informational-arbitrage-2-3-2-2
CATEGORIES:Econometrics of Finance,Finance
ORGANIZER;CN="Caroline%20HILLAIRET":MAILTO:Caroline.Hillairet@ensae.fr
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181105T164500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181105T174500
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181031T132054Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181031T132137Z
UID:9619-1541436300-1541439900@crest.science
SUMMARY:Elena ISSOGLIO (The University of Leeds) - "A numerical scheme for multidimensional SDEs with distributional drift "
DESCRIPTION:1st Monday of each month \nTime: 4:45 pm – 5:45 pm\nDate: 05 th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3105 \nElena ISSOGLIO (The University of Leeds) – “A numerical scheme for multidimensional SDEs with distributional drift ” \nAbstract : This talk focuses on a multidimensional SDE where the drift is an element of a fractional Sobolev space with negative order\, hence a distribution. This SDE admits a unique weak solution in a suitable sense – this was proven in [Flandoli\, Issoglio\, Russo (2017)]. The aim here is to construct a numerical scheme to approximate this solution. One of the key problems is that the drift cannot be evaluated pointwise\, hence we approximate it with suitable functions using Haar wavelets\, and then apply (an extended version of) Euler-Maruyama scheme. We then show that the algorithm converges in law\, and in the special 1-dimensional case we also get a rate of convergence (and in fact convergence in L^1). \nThis is based on a joint work with T. De Angelis and M. Germain. \n \n \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/claudio-fontana-universite-paris-diderot-the-value-of-informational-arbitrage-2-3-2-2-2
CATEGORIES:Econometrics of Finance,Finance
ORGANIZER;CN="Caroline%20HILLAIRET":MAILTO:Caroline.Hillairet@ensae.fr
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181106T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181106T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181018T112800Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181022T065846Z
UID:9597-1541506500-1541511000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Clément IMBERT (University of Warwick) - "Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Microeconometrics Seminar: Every Tuesday at 12:15 pm. \nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm\nDate: 6 th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nClément IMBERT (University of Warwick) – “Migrants and Firms: Evidence from China” \nAbstract: This paper estimates the causal effect of rural-urban migration on manufacturing firms in China. We exploit agricultural price shocks which generate exogenous variation in rural migration to cities. Using longitudinal data on all large manufacturing establishments between 2001 and 2006\, we show that in the year following a migrant inflow labor costs decline and production becomes more labor-intensive. We also find that\, within sectors\, establishments who expand have lower labor productivity\, so that aggregate productivity declines. These effects persist after five years. \njoint with Marlon Seror\, Yifan Zhang and Yanos Zylberberg. \nOrganizers:\n \nLaurent DAVEZIES (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nArne UHLENDORFF (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/toru-kitagawa-university-college-london-equality-minded-treatment-choice-2-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-3
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Microeconometrics Seminars
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181107T001500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181107T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181105T072829Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181105T072829Z
UID:9625-1541549700-1541597400@crest.science
SUMMARY:Patrick REY (TSE) - "Organizing Competition for the Market"
DESCRIPTION:CREST Microeconomics Seminar : \n\nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30pm\nDate: 7th November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nPatrick REY (TSE) – “Organizing Competition for the Market” \nAbstract: \nThe paper studies the competition for the market in a setting where incumbents (and\, to a lesser extent\, neighboring incumbents) benefit from a cost advantage. The paper first compares the outcome of staggered and synchronous tenders\, before drawing the implications for market. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nRoxana Fernandez Machado (CREST)\, Marie Laure Allain (CREST)\, and Pierre Boyer (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \nLunch registration:\nfood provided\, no registration needed \n\n \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/patrick-rey-tse-organizing-competition-for-the-market
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:The Microeconomics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181107T123000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181107T134500
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181003T132956Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181029T083119Z
UID:9576-1541593800-1541598300@crest.science
SUMMARY:Haley McAvay (Ined) - "Pathways out of the Parental Home: Contextual Determinants of Home-Leaving Patterns Across Second Generation Immigrant Origins in France"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Sociology Seminar: Thursdays\nTime: 12:30 pm – 1:45 pm exceptionally\nDate: 7th of November 2018 exceptionally wednesday \nPlace: Room 3105\, ENSAE. \nHaley McAvay (Ined) – “Pathways out of the Parental Home: Contextual Determinants of Home-Leaving Patterns Across Second Generation Immigrant Origins in France“ \nAbstract : This paper uses the Echantillon démographique permanent\, a large longitudinal data set from France\, matched with contextual characteristics from the census\, to explore the neighborhood-level determinants of leaving the parental home among second generation immigrants and French natives. We focus on both the role of the ethnoracial and socioeconomic composition of the original neighborhood on types of departure\, and whether these effects are similar across second generation origins and natives. The findings show that moving out is less likely in neighborhoods with higher shares of immigrants and among the second generation\, particularly of North and Sub-Saharan African origin. The effect of neighborhood ethnoracial composition is particularly salient for the second generation. Moreover\, patterns vary considerably when the type of decohabitation pathway is considered. Youth from co-ethnic immigrant neighborhoods are more likely to leave the home for more traditional arrangements such as marriage. These findings offer new contributions to the broader literature on transitions to adulthood and neighborhood effects as well as on second generation outcomes in France. \njoint work with Ariane Pailhé. \nOrganizers : \nJeanne GANAULT\, Céline GOFFETTE\, Sander WAGNER (Laboratoire de sociologie quantitative – CREST) \nSponsors : \nCREST \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/sarah-valdez-tba-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2
CATEGORIES:Sociology
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181107T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181107T150000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181031T172426Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181031T172426Z
UID:9621-1541599200-1541602800@crest.science
SUMMARY:Yannick Guyonvarch (CREST) - "Asymptotic Results for Exchangeable Arrays"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Stats-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar. \nTime: 14:00 pm – 15:00 pm\nDate: 7th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nYannick Guyonvarch (CREST) – “Asymptotic Results for Exchangeable Arrays” \nAim of the talk: Presentation of several (mostly asymptotic) results on exchangeable arrays and their use to solve relevant questions in Econometrics. Results are essentially based on a paper written with Laurent Davezies and Xavier d’Haultfoeuille. \n\n\n\nSponsors:\nCREST \n\n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/yannick-guyonvarch-crest-asymptotic-results-for-exchangeable-arrays
LOCATION:ENSAE ParisTech\, 5\, avenue Henry Le Chatelier\, 91120 Palaiseau\, France
CATEGORIES:Economics,Joint Statistics-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar,Statistics
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181112T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181112T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181026T072107Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181026T072107Z
UID:9612-1542024900-1542029400@crest.science
SUMMARY:David Rezza BAQAEE (LSE) "Productivity and Missalocation in General Equilibrium"
DESCRIPTION:Time: 12:15pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 12th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nDavid Rezza BAQAEE (LSE) “Productivity and Missalocation in General Equilibrium” \nAbstract : We provide a general non-parametric formula for aggregating microeconomic shocks in general equilibrium economies with distortions such as taxes\, markups\, frictions to resource reallocation\, and nominal rigidities. We show that the macroeconomic impact of a shock can be boiled down into two components: its “pure” technology e_ect; and its e_ect on allocative e_ciency arising from the reallocation of resources\, which can be measured via changes in factor income shares. We derive a formula showing how these two components are determined by structural microeconomic parameters such as elasticities of substitution\, returns to scale\, factor mobility\, and network linkages. Overall\, our results generalize those of Solow (1957) and Hulten (1978) to economies with distortions. As examples\, we pursue some applications focusing on markup distortions. We operationalize our non-parametric results and show that improvements in allocative e_ciency account for about 50% of measured TFP growth over the period 1997-2015. We implement our structural results and conclude that eliminating markups would raise TFP by about 20%\, increasing the economywide cost of monopoly distortions by two orders of magnitude compared to the famous 0.1% estimate by Harberger (1954). \nJoint work : Emmanuel FARHI (Harvard) \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/tommaso-monacelli-bocconi-university-igier-and-cepr-real-interest-rates-and-productivity-in-small-open-economies-joint-with-luca-sala-and-daniele-siena-2-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-3-2-4-2
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Macroeconomics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181112T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181112T151500
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181010T140151Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181010T140303Z
UID:9583-1542031200-1542035700@crest.science
SUMMARY:Karim LOUNICI (Ecole Polytechnique) - "Online PCA: non-asymptotics statistical guarantees for the Krasulina scheme"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Statistical Seminar: Every Monday at 2:00 pm. \nTime: 2:00 pm – 3:15 pm\nDate: 12st of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nKarim LOUNICI (Ecole Polytechnique) – “Online PCA: non-asymptotics statistical guarantees for the Krasulina scheme” \nAbstract: Principal Component Analysis is a popular method used to analyse the covariance structure $\Sigma$ of a random vector. Recent results on the statistical properties of standard PCA have highlighted the importance of the effective rank as a measure of the intrinsic statistical complexity in the PCA problem. In particular\, optimal rates of estimation of the spectral projectors have been established in the offline setting where all the observations are available at once and a batch estimation method is implemented. In the online setting\, observations arrive in a stream and our estimate of eigenvalues and spectral projectors are updated every time a new observation is available. This problem has attracted a lot a attention recently but little is known on the statistical properties of the existing methods. In this work\, we consider the Krasulina scheme (stochastic gradient ascent scheme) and establish non-asymptotic estimation bounds in probability for the spectral projectors. For this method\, the effective rank also plays a central role in the performance of the method\, however the obtained rate is slower than that obtained in the offline setting. \nOrganizers:\nCristina BUTUCEA\, Alexandre TSYBAKOV\, Julie JOSSE\, Eric MOULINES\, Mathieu ROSENBAUM \nSponsors:\nCREST-CMAP \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/jamal-najim-cnrs-upem-tba-2-2-3-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-3
CATEGORIES:Statistics
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181113T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181113T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181018T113104Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181024T132651Z
UID:9598-1542111300-1542115800@crest.science
SUMMARY:Alexandra ROULET (INSEAD) - "Geographic Mobility and the Gender Wage Gap : Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in France"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Microeconometrics Seminar: Every Tuesday at 12:15 pm. \nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm\nDate: 13 th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nAlexandra ROULET (INSEAD) – “Geographic Mobility and the Gender Wage Gap : Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in France” \nAbstract: Female job seekers are on average much less geographically mobile than their male counterparts and search for lower wages. Through a randomized experiment on 20\,000 French job seekers\, we show that a simple nudge treatment about geographic mobility can significantly increase the mobility of a subgroup of females. The treatment also leads them to search for higher wages. Our treatment consists of an advertisement message about financial incentives for geographic mobility offered by the Public Employment Service. \njoint with Dylan Glover. \nOrganizers:\n \nLaurent DAVEZIES (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nArne UHLENDORFF (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/toru-kitagawa-university-college-london-equality-minded-treatment-choice-2-3-2-2-2-2-2-2-3-2
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Microeconometrics Seminars
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181114T001500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181114T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181105T083032Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181105T083046Z
UID:9627-1542154500-1542202200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Benoit Schmutz (CREST) - "Search and Zipf "
DESCRIPTION:CREST Microeconomics Seminar : \n\nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30pm\nDate: 14th November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nBenoit Schmutz (CREST) – “Search and Zipf ” \nAbstract: \nWe develop a theory of a system of cities based on a general equilibrium search and matching model of individual careers with an explicit spatial component. Heterogeneous firms and workers continuously decide where to locate within a set of imperfectly connected local labor markets and engage in wage bargaining using both remote and local match opportunities as threat points. While parsimoniously parameterized and not resting upon restrictive assumptions regarding labor mobility\, the model allows us to introduce the structural origins of workers’ sorting\, firms’ selection and matching-based agglomeration economies into a unified framework. We use simulations to evaluate the role played by these three mechanisms on city size distribution. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nRoxana Fernandez Machado (CREST)\, Marie Laure Allain (CREST)\, and Pierre Boyer (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \nLunch registration:\nFood provided\, no registration needed. \n\n \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/benoit-schmutz-crest-search-and-zipf
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:The Microeconomics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181114T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181114T150000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181108T103835Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181108T103835Z
UID:9633-1542204000-1542207600@crest.science
SUMMARY:Victor-Emmanuel Brunel (CREST) - "Use of Random Polytopes in Statistics"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Stats-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar. \nTime: 14:00 pm – 15:00 pm\nDate: 14th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nVicotr-Emmanuel Brunel (CREST) – “Use of Random Polytopes in Statistics” \nAim of the talk: Introductory lecture on random polytopes and their application in estimation. \n\n\n\nSponsors:\nCREST \n\n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/victor-emmanuel-brunel-crest-use-of-random-polytopes-in-statistics
LOCATION:ENSAE ParisTech\, 5\, avenue Henry Le Chatelier\, 91120 Palaiseau\, France
CATEGORIES:Economics,Joint Statistics-Machine Learning-Econometrics Seminar,Statistics
ATTACH;FMTTYPE=:
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181115T123000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181115T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181109T134648Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181109T134648Z
UID:9638-1542285000-1542288600@crest.science
SUMMARY:Bastien Alvarez: "Labour mobility and skill heterogeneity in Europe"
DESCRIPTION:Firms and Markets Seminar \n \nAbstract: \nHow does labour mobility interact with education investment in an imperfect monetary union? This paper investigates the interplay between labour mobility\, education and transfers with a tractable two-country overlapping generation model comprising labour mobility\, heterogeneous agents and fluctuations. It allows deducing a distribution of skills\, in a similar fashion as Yeapple (2005)\, and also to define a migration distribution according to skills\, a TFP shock and a moving cost. First\, I find that in presence of economic fluctuations education increases migration. Second\, as the possibility to migrate provides an outside option for agents in a depressed economy\, it should add up to incentives to educate. Third\, I study the effects of simple international transfers aiming at absorbing asymmetric shocks. On one hand it leads to a direct positive effect on education due to risks inducing precautionary investment in education\, but on the other hand it tempers the positive effect of migration on education level as the transfers reduce economic fluctuations. \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/bastien-alvarez-labour-mobility-and-skill-heterogeneity-in-europe
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:The PhD Economics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181119T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181119T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181026T090036Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181114T084546Z
UID:9614-1542629700-1542634200@crest.science
SUMMARY:Hakki YASICI (Sabanci University) "Taxation\, Redistribution and Frictional Labor Supply"
DESCRIPTION:Time: 12:15pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 19th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nHakki YASICI (Sabanci University) “Taxation\, Redistribution and Frictional Labor Supply” \nAbstract : We analyze the implications of ex ante dispersion in worker talents and a frictional labor market for the design of tax systems. Our model features on and off the job search\, job ladders\, job creation\, and equilibrium income and profit dispersion within talent markets. In a baseline setting with no talent dispersion\, the optimal system consists of an unemployment benefit financed out of a simple lump sum tax on workers. The benefit is high enough to suppress worker income and firm profit dispersion\, deter worker poaching and collapse job ladders. With talent dispersion\, high benefit levels drive less talented workers out of the market and are prohibitively costly. Active talent markets are frictional. Taxes impact the dispersion of worker incomes and firm profits within these markets. These effects shape and modify conventional optimal tax formulas. Quantitative analysis implies that they create a motive for lower marginal tax rates. \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/tommaso-monacelli-bocconi-university-igier-and-cepr-real-interest-rates-and-productivity-in-small-open-economies-joint-with-luca-sala-and-daniele-siena-2-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-3-2-4-2-3
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Macroeconomics Seminars
END:VEVENT
BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181120T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181120T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181106T084416Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181112T092311Z
UID:9629-1542716100-1542720600@crest.science
SUMMARY:Mathilde POULHES (CREST-INSEE) - “Increasing Housing Transfer Taxes: Buy Now or Foot the Bill Later"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Microeconometrics Seminar: Every Tuesday at 12:15 pm. \nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm\nDate: 20th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nMathilde POULHES (CREST-INSEE) – “Increasing Housing Transfer Taxes: Buy Now or Foot the Bill Later”. \nAbstract: This paper estimates the impact of the rise of housing transfer tax in France. It exploits both time and geographical discontinuities in the implementation of the 2014 reform that allowed local authorities to raise housing transfer tax. On the short term\, we provide evidence that buyers anticipate the reform to avoid the additional tax burden. We find some evidence of a long-term negative effect of the tax increase on the number of transactions\, only in markets where supply is high relative to demand. Finally\, we find no effect on pre-tax sales prices\, meaning that the burden of the transfer tax rests on the buyer. Our findings highlight the price rigidity of the French housing market and suggest the existence of price frictions potentially due to loss aversion. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nLaurent Davezies (CREST)\, Benoit Schmutz (CREST)\, Arne Uhlendorff (CREST) & Lucas Girard (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \nLunch registration:\nfood provided\, no registration \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/mathilde-poulhes-crest-increasing-housing-transfer-taxes-buy-now-or-foot-the-bill-later
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Microeconometrics Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181120T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181120T151500
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181031T072046Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181031T072046Z
UID:9618-1542722400-1542726900@crest.science
SUMMARY:Guenther WALTHER (Stanford University) - "Constructing an optimal confidence set for a distribution function with applications to visualizing data"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Statistical Seminar: Every Monday at 2:00 pm. \nTime: 2:00 pm – 3:15 pm\nDate: 20th of November 2018 exceptionally Tuesday \nPlace: Room 3001. \nGuenther WALTHER (Stanford University) – “Constructing an optimal confidence set for a distribution function with applications to visualizing data“ \nAbstract: \nWe show how to construct a confidence set of distribution functions that have the same optimal estimation performance as the empirical distribution function\, but which may be much simpler\, that is the distribution functions may have many fewer jumps. \nWe show how an accelerated dynamic program can be applied to a relaxed optimization problem in order to find the distribution function in the confidence set that has the fewest jumps. \nWe propose to use this distribution function for summarizing and visualizing the data via a histogram\, as this distribution function is the simplest function that optimally addresses the two main tasks of the histogram: estimating probabilities and detecting features such as increases and (anti)modes in the distribution. We will illustrate our methodology with examples. \nThis is joint work with Housen Li\, Axel Munk\, and Hannes Sieling. \nOrganizers:\nCristina BUTUCEA\, Alexandre TSYBAKOV\, Julie JOSSE\, Eric MOULINES\, Mathieu ROSENBAUM \nSponsors:\nCREST-CMAP \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/jamal-najim-cnrs-upem-tba-2-2-3-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-3-3
CATEGORIES:Statistics
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181121T001500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181121T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181114T221513Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181114T221513Z
UID:9642-1542759300-1542807000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Camille Landais (LSE) - "Subsidizing Labor Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment & Welfare Effects of Short Time Work"
DESCRIPTION:CREST Microeconomics Seminar : \n\nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30pm\nDate: 21st November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \n\n \n\nCamille Landais (LSE) – “Subsidizing Labor Hoarding in Recessions: The Employment & Welfare Effects of Short Time Work” \nAbstract: \nThe Great Recession has seen a revival of interest in policies encouraging labor hoarding by firms. Short time work (STW) policies\, which consist in offering subsidies for hours reductions to workers in firms experiencing temporary shocks\, are the most emblematic of these policies\, and have been used aggressively during the recession. Yet\, very little is known about their employment and welfare consequences. This paper leverages unique administrative social security data from Italy and quasi-experimental variation in STW policy rules to offer compelling evidence of the effects of STW on firms’ and workers’ outcomes\, and on reallocation in the labor market. Our results show large and significant negative effects of STW treatment on hours\, but large and positive effects on headcount employment. Results also show that employment effects disappear when the program stops\, and that STW offers no long term insurance to workers. Finally\, we identify the presence of significant negative reallocation effects of STW on employment growth of untreated firms in the same local labor market. We develop a simple conceptual framework to rationalize this empirical evidence\, from which we derive a general formula for the optimal STW subsidy that clarifies the welfare trade-offs of STW policies. Calibrating the model to our empirical evidence\, we conduct counterfactual policy analysis and show that STW stabilized employment during the Great Recession in Italy\, and brought (small) positive welfare gains. \n\n\nOrganizers:\nRoxana Fernandez Machado (CREST)\, Marie Laure Allain (CREST)\, and Pierre Boyer (CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \nLunch registration:\nFood provided\, no registration needed. \n\n \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/camille-landais-lse-subsidizing-labor-hoarding-in-recessions-the-employment-welfare-effects-of-short-time-work
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:The Microeconomics Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181122T103000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181122T233000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181102T080035Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181102T080035Z
UID:9624-1542882600-1542929400@crest.science
SUMMARY:Alexander HEINEMANN (Maastricht University ) "A Residual Bootstrap for Conditional Value-at-Risk"
DESCRIPTION:\nFINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS SEMINAR \nTime: 10:30 am – 11.30 pm\nDate: 22th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nAlexander HEINEMANN (Maastricht University ) “A Residual Bootstrap for Conditional Value-at-Risk” \nAbstract: This paper proposes a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zakoïan (2015) associated with the conditional Value-at-Risk. The bootstrap’s consistency is proven under mild assumptions for a general class of volatility models and bootstrap intervals are constructed for the conditional Value-at-Risk to quantify the uncertainty induced by estimation. A large-scale simulation study is conducted revealing that the equal-tailed percentile interval based on the fixed-design residual bootstrap tends to fall short of its nominal value. In contrast\, the reversed-tails interval based on the fixed-design residual bootstrap yields accurate coverage. In the simulation study we also consider the recursive-design bootstrap. It turns out that the recursive-design and the fixed-design bootstrap perform equally well in terms of average coverage. Yet in smaller samples the fixed-design scheme leads on average to shorter intervals. An empirical application illustrates the interval estimation using the fixed-design residual bootstrap. \n \nOrganizers:\nJean-Michel ZAKOIAN (CREST ) \nSponsors:\nCREST and ILB \nLocation:\nAddress : ENSAE ParisTech\n5\, avenue Henry Le Chatelier\n91120 Palaiseau\nHow to come? \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/francisco-blasques-vu-university-amsterdam-tinbergen-institute-transformed-polynomials-for-semi-nonparametric-conditional-volatility-models-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3
CATEGORIES:Econometrics of Finance,Finance
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181122T123000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181122T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181115T151956Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181115T152022Z
UID:9643-1542889800-1542893400@crest.science
SUMMARY:Yannick Guyonvarch (CREST): "Finite Confidence Intervals for Ratios of Means"
DESCRIPTION:Firms and Markets Seminar \n \nAbstract: \nIn applied economics\, many parameters of interest can be viewed as (combinations of) ratios of means. Two leading examples are (i) average treatment effect estimands and (ii) the average outcome in a population where individuals are allowed to be clustered (e.g. average grade of pupils when the latter are assumed to be clustered at the class level). The construction of confidence intervals for such quantities relies most of the time on asymptotic normality and the delta method. However\, when the number of observations is small and/or the denominator of the ratio is close to zero\, the relevance of asymptotic confidence intervals can be questioned.\nThe aim of next week’s talk is threefold:\n1. define the notion of finite sample confidence intervals and present classical results from the statistical literature to build such finite sample confidence intervals for means;\n 2. present our finite sample confidence intervals for ratios of means and discuss the limitations of what we have found so far;\n 3. show some simulations to assess the behavior of our finite sample confidence intervals and how they compare to asymptotic ones.\nAs for now\, the state of the project is rather preliminary so we are looking forward to hearing your comments!\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/yannick-guyonvarch-crest-finite-confidence-intervals-for-ratios-of-means
LOCATION:3001
CATEGORIES:The PhD Economics Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+2:20181126T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+2:20181126T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20181026T085510Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181030T114758Z
UID:9613-1543234500-1543239000@crest.science
SUMMARY:Pedro GOMES (Birkbeck University London) "You're the one that I want! Public Employment and women's labour market outcomes"
DESCRIPTION:Time: 12:15pm – 13:30 pm\nDate: 26th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nPedro GOMES (Birkbeck University London) “You’re the one that I want! Public Employment and women’s labour market outcomes” \nAbstract : We analyze the role of public sector employment in shaping women’s labor market outcomes. The public sector is the biggest employer in most economies\, and it hires dis-proportionally more women than men. Hence\, public employment and wage policies affect women in particular\, with implications for gender gaps in employment\, unemployment\, participation\, and wages. We first carry out an empirical study documenting the differences in level of employment\, transition probabilities\, hours and wages for men and women in the public and private sectors\, for France\, United Kingdom\, United States and Spain. Second\, we build a search and matching model where men and women decide if to participate in the labor market and if to enter private or public sector labour market. Our framework allows us to disentangle and quantify how much of the selection of women into the public sector is driven by: (i) lower gender wage gaps and thus relatively higher wages for women in the public sector and/or (ii) possibilities of better conciliation of work and family life for public sector workers and (iii) an intrinsic preference for public sector activities. Our framework can be used to evaluate the effects of public sector employment and wage policies on gender gaps in the labor market. \n
URL:http://crest.science/event/tommaso-monacelli-bocconi-university-igier-and-cepr-real-interest-rates-and-productivity-in-small-open-economies-joint-with-luca-sala-and-daniele-siena-2-2-2-2-2-3-2-2-2-3-2-4-2-2
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Macroeconomics Seminars
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181126T140000
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181126T151500
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20180806T093024Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181106T080454Z
UID:9355-1543240800-1543245300@crest.science
SUMMARY:Stanislav MINSKER (University of Southern California) - "Median-of-means estimator and its generalizations"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Statistical Seminar: Every Monday at 2:00 pm. \nTime: 2:00 pm – 3:15 pm\nDate: 26th of November 2018\nPlace: Room 3001. \nStanislav MINSKER (University of Southern California) “Median-of-means estimator and its generalizations“ \nAbstract: New results are presented for the class of estimators obtained via the generalization of the median-of-means (MOM) technique. These results stem from connections between performance of MOM-type estimators and the rates of convergence in normal approximation. We provide tight non-asymptotic deviations guarantees in the form of exponential concentration inequalities\, as well as asymptotic results in the form of limit theorems. Finally\, we will discuss multivariate extensions. \nOrganizers:\nCristina BUTUCEA\, Alexandre TSYBAKOV\, Julie JOSSE\, Eric MOULINES\, Mathieu ROSENBAUM \nSponsors:\nCREST-CMAP \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/jamal-najim-cnrs-upem-tba-2-2-3-5-2-2-2-2-2-2-2
CATEGORIES:Statistics
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DTSTART;TZID=UTC+1:20181127T121500
DTEND;TZID=UTC+1:20181127T133000
DTSTAMP:20181116T093123
CREATED:20180918T072821Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20181001T145011Z
UID:9540-1543320900-1543325400@crest.science
SUMMARY:Martin WEIDNER (University College London) - "Nuclear Norm Regularized Estimation of Panel Regression Models"
DESCRIPTION:\nThe Microeconometrics Seminar: Every Tuesday at 12:15 pm. \nTime: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm\nDate: 27 th of october 2018\nPlace: Room 3001 \nMartin WEIDNER (University College London) – “Nuclear Norm Regularized Estimation of Panel Regression Models” \nAbstract: \nIn this paper we investigate panel regression models with interactive fixed effects. We propose two new estimation methods that are based on minimizing convex objective functions. The first method minimizes the sum of squared residuals with a nuclear (trace) norm regularization. The second method minimizes the nuclear norm of the residuals. We establish the consistency of the two resulting estimators. We also show how to construct estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to the least squares (LS) estimator in Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2017) by using our nuclear norm regularized or minimized estimators as initial values for a finite number of LS minimizing iteration steps. This iteration avoids any non-convex minimization\, while the original LS estimation problem is generally non-convex\, and can have multiple local minima. In addition to this computational advantage\, our method also helps to consistently estimate regression coefficients on `low-rank’ regressors in the presence of an unknown number of factors\, where the standard LS approach may give inconsistent estimates. \njoint work with Hyungsik Roger Moon (USC). \nOrganizers:\n \nLaurent DAVEZIES (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nArne UHLENDORFF (Laboratoire de Microéconométrie-CREST) \nSponsors:\nCREST \n \n\n
URL:http://crest.science/event/toru-kitagawa-university-college-london-equality-minded-treatment-choice-2-3-2-2-2-2-2-2
CATEGORIES:Economics,The Microeconometrics Seminars
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