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Guillaume CHEVILLON (ESSEC, France) “The Bias-Variance Trade-off in Multistep Forecasting and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons”

February 14, 11:30 am - 12:15 pm

FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS SEMINAR

Time: 11:30
Date: 14th of February 2019
Place: Room 3001

Guillaume CHEVILLON (ESSEC, France) “The Bias-Variance Trade-off in Multistep Forecasting and Predictive Regressions at Intermediate and Long Horizons”

Abstract This paper studies the properties of multi-step projections, and fore- casts that are obtained using either iterated or direct methods. The models considered are local asymptotic: they allow for a near unit root and a local to zero drift. We treat short, intermediate and long term forecasting by considering the horizon in relation to the observable sample size. We show the implication of our results for models of predictive regressions used in the financial literature. We show here that direct projection methods at intermediate and long horizons are robust to the potential misspecification of the serial correlation of the regression errors. We therefore recommend, for better global power in predictive regressions, a combination of test statistics with and without autocorrelation correction.

 

Organizers:
Jean-Michel ZAKOIAN (CREST )

Sponsors:
CREST and ILB

Location:
Address
 : ENSAE ParisTech
5, avenue Henry Le Chatelier
91120 Palaiseau
How to come?

 

Details

Date:
February 14
Time:
11:30 am - 12:15 pm
Event Categories:
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