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[Environment session] Hélène OLLIVIER (PSE) – “Trade-Induced Spillovers from Natural Disasters” joint with Geoffrey Barrows & Raphael Calel
April 13, 2018, 12:15 pm - 1:30 pm
The Microeconomics Seminar: Every Wednesday at 12:15 pm (exceptionally on Friday).
Time: 12:15 pm – 1:30 pm
Date:11th of April 2018
Place: Room 3001.
[Environment session] – Hélène OLLIVIER (PSE) – “Trade-Induced Spillovers from Natural Disasters” joint with Geoffrey Barrows & Raphael Calel
Abstract: We study the role of intra-national trade in mitigating the economic impacts of typhoons. Typhoons impair production in affected regions, which would increase prices and lower welfare. However, trade mechanisms can smooth the impacts across space, leading to spill-over effects on prices in unaffected regions, especially if these regions were importing commodities from the affected ones. Using best track data and a wind field model to identify the typhoon exposure of each province in the Philippines, in combination with trade data across provinces, we estimate the response of agricultural output and prices to own-province and partner-province typhoon-induced wind speeds in a difference-and-difference-like framework. We find that own-province wind speeds from typhoons increase agricultural prices during the first three months after the shock, whereas partner-province wind speeds induce a similar effect but with a delay.
Guy Meunier & Morgane Cure (CREST)
Food is provided.